Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model

Abstract

Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning in arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates the future runoffs of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing the hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to the period of 1976~2005, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.22 ± 0.72 °C during 2036~2065 under RCP8.5 scenarios, with a larger increment in the south Tianshan mountains and a lower increment in the north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase by 3.81 ± 14.72 mm and 20.53 ± 27.65 mm during 2036–2065 and 2066–2095, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mountainous runoffs of the four headwaters that directly recharge the mainstream of the Tarim River demonstrate an overall increasing trend in the 21st century. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff is projected to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% (amounting to 7.84 × 108 m3 and 9.56 × 108 m3) in 2006–2035. Among them, the runoff of the Kaidu River, which is dominated by rainfall and snowmelt, is projected to present slightly decreasing trends of 3~8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For catchments located in the north Kunlun Mountains (e.g., the Yarkant and Hotan Rivers which are mix-recharged by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall), the runoff will increase significantly, especially in summer due to increased glacier melt and precipitation. Seasonally, the Kaidu River shows a forward shift in peak flow. The summer streamflow in the Yarkant and Hotan rivers is expected to increase significantly, which poses challenges in flood risk management.