Projecting population, numbers of households and dwelling units in South Africa 2011-2021

Abstract

Future trends in population, number of households and dwelling units are critical components in strategic planning for future service delivery in South Africa. To aid planning therefore, this study analysed provincial trends in fertility, mortality and net migration as well as trends in the number of households and dwelling units. On the basis of the trends and assumptions about the future, households and dwelling units were projected for the period 2011-2021 using component functional models and ratio method. The results suggest that the size of the population aged 15 years and over in South Africa may increase from 36.4 million in mid-2011 to 42.5 million in mid-2021. Gauteng province is projected to have the largest number of persons in this age group. The number of households nationally is projected to increase from 15 million in mid-2011 to 20 million by mid2021 with Gauteng having the highest number of households.