Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland

Abstract

Extratropical windstorms can lead to extreme impacts in the UK; however, future changes in windstorm frequency and intensity are uncertain due to natural variability and lack of model consensus. Further uncertainty arises due to unresolved or poorly represented processes which can reduce the validity of traditional coarse resolution climate models. This study demonstrates the added value of higher resolution simulations in their representation of extreme windstorms. It also assesses future changes in windstorms in the first ensemble of convection-permitting model (CPM, 2.2 km grid spacing) projections over the UK, released as part of the UKCP18 project, and compares these to changes in the driving 60 km global climate model (GCM) and 12 km regional climate model (RCM). The representation of wind gusts in the CPM and RCM is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations. Both models are largely similar except over areas with orographic influences where the CPM provides greater detail and simulates higher wind gusts. In contrast, the GCM simulates lower wind gusts and underestimates windstorm intensity; the improvements from the RCM and CPM are partially linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting jets at km-scale. The CPM projects an increase in the frequency of extreme windstorms. In line with a previous study, a large contribution comes from storms that develop sting jets which now seems to be a robust response of windstorms to a warming climate. Similar projected increases are also found in the coarser resolution models, although differences in projections exist at a regional scale in the CPM compared to the RCM and GCM. Overall, higher resolution simulations improve the representation of windstorms, offering greater detail at the local scale which may provide better information for impact modelling, though large-scale projected changes in the assessed storm severity index are insensitive to the model resolutions in the simulations tested here.