Abstract
Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting jet are extremely damaging. A sting jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro–Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting jets. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro–Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2 km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations; this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting jets in the CPM. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro–Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates. The frequency of extreme windstorms is projected to increase by 2100 and a large contribution comes from sting jet storms. Furthermore, extreme wind speeds and their future changes are underestimated in the global climate model (GCM) compared to the CPM. We conclude that the CPM adds value in the representation of extreme winds and surface wind gusts and can provide improved input for impact models compared to coarser resolution models.
Highlights
Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe and cyclones that follow the Shapiro–Keyser (SK) conceptual model (Shapiro and Keyser 1990) account for a large proportion of the most damaging windstorms (Hewson and Neu 2015)
The results suggest that the convection-permitting model (CPM) and global climate model (GCM) are similar in their representation of warm conveyor belt (WCB) winds, while the GCM largely underestimates cold sector wind speeds at 850 hPa related to the sting jet and cold conveyor belt (CCB), for the extremes
This paper assesses the added-value of the CPM compared to a 25 km GCM and proposes a novel, low-cost, automated methodology that detects cyclones which develop warm seclusions, namely Shapiro–Keyser cyclones and sting jets within those cyclones
Summary
Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe and cyclones that follow the Shapiro–Keyser (SK) conceptual model (Shapiro and Keyser 1990) account for a large proportion of the most damaging windstorms (Hewson and Neu 2015). Previous storms known to have produced sting jets include the most damaging windstorm to hit the UK, the Great Storm of’ (Browning 2004; Clark et al 2005), as well as windstorms Ulli and Friedhelm (Fox et al 2012), Tini (Slater et al 2017; Volonté et al 2018), and Ellen (Met Éireann 2020). The latter four storms each warranted a red level warning, the highest level to be issued by forecasting agencies due to the high likelihood of extreme impacts occurring. We quantify the contribution of such windstorms to wind risk using current and future climate simulations produced by a convection-permitting climate model (CPM), and compare these with a 25 km global climate model (GCM) to assess
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