Projected Changes in Türkiye's Wind Energy Potential Using Next-Generation Climate Models and Scenarios

Abstract

Renewable energy is a cornerstone in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and, accordingly, mitigating changes in the global climate system. Wind energy is becoming more common among all renewable energy sources used for electricity generation in terms of generation capacity, rapid growth and technological maturity. The share of wind energy in Türkiye's total electricity production, whose installed capacity has been increasing in recent years, has nearly tripled in the last decade. However, given that wind energy potential varies with wind speed, even small changes in future wind patterns and characteristics can strongly affect future wind power generation dependent on projections. For this purpose, in this study, Türkiye's mid-future (2031-2060) wind energy potential is examined under optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and pessimistic (SSP3-7.0) scenarios. In the study, 0.25° x 0.25° spatial resolution CMIP6 models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset were used. The results point to regional differences in Turkey's mid-future (2031-2060) wind energy potential.Acknowledgement: This research was supported by DaVinci Energy Investments and Consulting Industry and Trade Inc.