Projected Burden of Bacillary Dysentery Due to Climate Change in a Temperate City in China

Abstract

ISEE-211 Objective: This study aims to project the morbidity burden of bacillary dysentery due to climate change, measured in terms of years lost due to disability (YLDs), in a temperate city of China, to provide scientific evidence for policy makers to reduce the impact of climate change on food-borne diseases in the future. Material and Methods: Notified age- and sex-specified incidence cases of bacillary dysentery and demographic data of the study city were collected from relevant local authorities. The calculation of the YLDs was based on the methodologic framework in the Global Burden of Disease study. The quantitative relationship between climatic variables and the number of cases were based on our previous studies. Various scenarios of increasing temperatures (and demographic change) were applied in this estimate. The YLDs of bacillary dysentery in 2000 were estimated first and then the projection for 2020 and 2050 was conducted. Results: The total YLDs of bacillary dysentery in 2000 in the temperate city were more than 600 and the YLDs were slightly higher in men than women. Considering the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs of bacillary dysentery may increase up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050, compared with 2000. With the consideration of both climate scenarios and demographic change, the YLDs of bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050, compared with 2000, if other influencing factors remain unchanged. Conclusions: Despite the uncertainties and limitations in the burden of diseases study, our results suggest that global warming may cause a serious increase in the morbidity burden of bacillary dysentery in the temperate city of China. Sustainable policies should be developed and implemented at an early stage for better mitigation and adaptation to the future risk of climate change.