Project scheduling for maximum NPV with variable activity durations and uncertain activity outcomes

Abstract

The literature on project scheduling with uncertain activity durations is still in its burn-in phase. We examine project scheduling with net-present-value objective and exponential activity durations by means of a backward stochastic dynamic programming recursion. We examine the particular setting in which the individual activities carry a risk of failure, and where an activity?s failure results in the project?s overall failure. In the project planning and scheduling literature, this technological uncertainty has typically been ignored and project plans are developed only for scenarios in which the project succeeds.