Project finance flight simulator

Abstract

Project Finance addresses the need to secure large-scale, capital-intensive investments in face of expenditure restraint. Efficiency and a more logical distribution of risk among stakeholders are major advantages. The high amounts involved and the usually high proportion of debt—millions, in any currency—call for detailed risk analysis and risk allocation. In Project Finance there is limited or no recourse over the sponsor's assets and so investors rely on future cash flows for profitability. Growth prospects are therefore preferred to absolute values at any given time. However, most investors still decide based on the Net Present Value (NPV) of an opportunity, and use risk-adjusted discount rates to cope with uncertainty. This additional mark-up can ultimately turn down an otherwise profitable venture. By making the continuous-time behaviour of cash flows visible, simulation models based on System Dynamics avoids these drawbacks and provides a method to assess and manage financial risks that takes growth into account.