Progression of Unifocal versus Multifocal Geographic Atrophy in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract

Determining the natural history of unifocal versus multifocal geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to nonexudative age-related macular degeneration. The association between GA focality (i.e., unifocal vs. multifocal lesions) and enlargement rate is inconsistent in the literature. Some studies report a comparable growth rate between unifocal and multifocal GA, whereas others suggest the growth rate varies widely between the 2 groups. We searched 5 literature databases up to May 3, 2019, for studies that classified treatment-naïve GA patients based on lesion focality. We performed a random effects meta-analysis to determine the growth rates of GA. To account for different entry times among cohorts, we introduced a horizontal translation factor to the dataset of each cohort. Heterogeneity and study quality were assessed using the I2 statistic and Quality in Prognosis Studies tool, respectively. Publication bias was evaluated by funnel plots and the Egger test. We included 12 studies with 3489 eyes from 3001 patients. After the introduction of translation factors, the effective radius of unifocal and multifocal GA enlarged linearly over approximately 7 years. The effective radius growth rate of multifocal GA (0.199±0.012 mm/year) was 46.3% higher than the growth rate of unifocal GA (0.136±0.008 mm/year; P < 0.001). Interestingly, unifocal and multifocal GA lesions with the same total baseline area grew at vastly different rates, with an estimated ratio of the growth rate as 1.46 (between 2 and 3). This difference disappeared after we accounted for different baseline total perimeters between unifocal and multifocal groups. The measured GA growth rate was consistent across studies using color fundus photography, fundus autofluorescence, or OCT (P= 0.35-0.99). The effective radius of GA enlarges linearly and steadily over time in both unifocal and multifocal GA. The lesion focality is a significant prognostic factor for the GA effective radius growth rate. We propose that the growth rate of GA area is directly proportional to the total lesion perimeter (a measure of the number of retinal pigment epithelium cells exposed at the lesion border). Additional studies are needed to understand the cellular mechanisms underlying this relationship.