Prognostic predictive value of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder after TURBT based on multiphase CT radiomics.

Abstract

To investigate multiphase computed tomography (CT) radiomics-based combined with clinical factors to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with bladder urothelial carcinoma (BLCA) who underwent transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). Data were retrospectively collected from 114 patients with primary BLCA from February 2016 to February 2018. The regions of interest (ROIs) of the plain, arterial, and venous phase images were manually segmented. The Cox regression algorithm was used to establish 3 basic models for the plain phase (PP), arterial phase (AP), and venous phase (VP) and 2 combination models (AP + VP and PP + AP + VP). The highest-performing radiomics model was selected to calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score), and independent risk factors affecting patients' OS were analyzed using Cox regression. The Rad-score and clinical risk factors were combined to construct a joint model and draw a visualized nomogram. The combined model of PP + AP + VP showed the best performance with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Consistency Index (C-index) in the test group of 130.48 and 0.779, respectively. A combined model constructed with two independent risk factors (age and Ki-67 expression status) in combination with the Rad-score outperformed the radiomics model alone; AIC and C-index in the test group were 115.74 and 0.840, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities of the joint model and the actual (p < 0.05). The decision curve showed that the joint model had good clinical application value within a large range of threshold probabilities. This new model can be used to predict the OS of patients with BLCA who underwent TURBT.