Prognostic indicators estimated by Tc-GSA in acute liver damage

Abstract

A prognostic estimation formula of acute liver damage was evaluated by using clinical data and technetium-99m-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid-galactosyl-human serum albumin ((99m)Tc-GSA) scintigraphy in order to determine operability for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Forty-six patients hospitalized for acute liver damage were divided into survival (n=35) and non-survival (n=11) groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify significant factors that affected prognosis. Logistic regression analysis was performed to predict prognosis with effective factors. Ten independent factors with significant differences were identified and further analyzed for significance by logistic regression analysis. Among the 10 factors, age and LHL15/HH15 were identified as having meaningful differences for predicting convalescence. The following formula was developed: A negative value for R indicates non-survivals, and a positive value indicates survivals. The mortality rate was calculated as=1/(1+e(R)). The sensitivity was 0.909, specificity was 1.000, and accuracy was 0.978. The reliability of this formula was as good as that of another formula presented previously by the Intractable Liver Diseases Study Group of Japan. The use of (99m)Tc-GSA for estimating the prognosis of acute liver damage is useful, especially before the onset of hepatic encephalopathy.