Production forecast, comprehensive utilization, management measures and visualization analysis of construction waste

Abstract

To achieve the national policy objectives of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is essential to enhance resource utilization efficiency, establish a resource recycling system, promote a green economy, and develop a green development policy framework. This thesis utilizes statistical data from the Chongqing municipality yearbook and employs the Time Series Forecasting Model (TSFM) and Gray Prediction Model (GM) to predict the generation of construction waste (CW) in Chongqing Municipality from 2021 to 2030.By 2030, engineering waste, demolition waste, renovation waste, and total CW generation are predicted to increase by 40.93%/34.30%, 37.3%/57.78%, 6.00%/9.55%, and 38.71%/57.85%, respectively, compared to 2020. This indicates significant pressure on the city's CW disposal system. The current situation of CW disposal and transfer in Chongqing City shows that the main methods are simple landfills, engineering backfills, and even private dumping. The actual resource utilization rate is still relatively low. Current CW disposal enterprises have some disposal and recycling capacity, but most are private, with insufficient distribution points and limited processing capacity. This results in a low overall comprehensive utilization rate of CW in central Chongqing. Since 2003, Chongqing Municipality has issued CW disposal-related policy documents. Although relevant policies have been introduced, they need further improvement. Recycled products are mainly bricks and aggregates, and there is a lack of local standards, which hinders effective resource utilization of CW in Chongqing. Finally, using the Citespace tool, a visual analysis of global CW research hotspots and trends over the past 14 years was conducted to accelerate CW resource utilization in Chongqing Municipality.