Abstract
Most models of product adoption predict S-shaped adoption curves. Here we report results from two country-scale experiments in which we find linear adoption curves. We show evidence that the observed linear pattern is the result of active information-seeking behaviour: individuals actively pulling information from several central sources facilitated by modern Internet searches. Thus, a constant baseline rate of interest sustains product diffusion, resulting in a linear diffusion process instead of the S-shaped curve of adoption predicted by many diffusion models. The main experiment seeded 70 000 (48 000 in Experiment 2) unique voucher codes for the same product with randomly sampled nodes in a social network of approximately 43 million individuals with about 567 million ties. We find that the experiment reached over 800 000 individuals with 80% of adopters adopting the same product—a winner-take-all dynamic consistent with search engine driven rankings that would not have emerged had the products spread only through a network of social contacts. We provide evidence for (and characterization of) this diffusion process driven by active information-seeking behaviour through analyses investigating (a) patterns of geographical spreading; (b) the branching process; and (c) diffusion heterogeneity. Using data on adopters' geolocation we show that social spreading is highly localized, while on-demand diffusion is geographically independent. We also show that cascades started by individuals who actively pull information from central sources are more effective at spreading the product among their peers.
Highlights
Social influence plays a prominent role across many social sciences, for example in the study of contagion in sociology [1], social learning in problem-solving [2], herding behaviour in economics [3], price bubbles in financial markets [4] and well-being in public health [5,6,7]
2 We show how active information-seeking behaviour shapes product adoption curves leading to dynamics that are consistent with those produced by search engines rankings and can lead to winner-take-all dynamics that are distinctly different from those expected if products would diffuse purely from peer-to-peer
When a voucher code appeared at a node in the network that has no connections to other nodes that have previously adopted the code, that appearance can only be explained by the influence of some unobserved exogenous source
Summary
Social influence plays a prominent role across many social sciences, for example in the study of contagion in sociology [1], social learning in problem-solving [2], herding behaviour in economics [3], price bubbles in financial markets [4] and well-being in public health [5,6,7]. Better understanding of product diffusion driven by active information-seeking behaviour may lead to important insights into homophilous network connections These insights may provide a basis to better predict cascade sizes and improve targeting [22]. We track the adoption through 70 000 unique voucher codes (48 000 codes in Experiment 2) resulting from active information-seeking behaviour and quantify the mixing between this ODD process and peer-to-peer diffusion as they occur simultaneously. 2 We show how active information-seeking behaviour shapes product adoption curves leading to dynamics that are consistent with those produced by search engines rankings and can lead to winner-take-all dynamics that are distinctly different from those expected if products would diffuse purely from peer-to-peer. Our analysis builds on and extends this research by quantifying and characterizing patterns in product adoption that are driven by on-demand informationseeking behaviour, the geographical distribution of adopters, cascade sizes, and the competition between products that spread simultaneously
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
