Abstract
A necessary prerequisite both for understanding past climate change and for predicting future climate change is the ability to quantify the size of the perturbations to the earth's energy balance as a result of either natural or anthropogenic mechanisms which act to drive climate change. Over recent decades, the number of climate change mechanisms being actively considered has grown enormously, but for many of these there are considerable uncertainties in their quantification. This chapter reviews the current status of our knowledge of these mechanisms and illustrates the impact of some of the uncertainties using a simple climate model. Particular attention is given to the impact of aerosols on clouds and the role of volcanic eruptions.
Published Version
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