Problems and prospects of decarbonization of road transport in the Russian Federation

Abstract

On the way of decarbonization of certain sectors of the economy, new types of climate risks arise, and associated losses as a result of actions by the public and private sectors aimed at containing these changes, and not at adapting industries to climate change. Measures for decarbonization of motor transport are considered. The most effective of them in the medium term are measures to diversify the use of natural gas, traction electric drive and hydrogen fuel cells as energy sources. The key organizational, technological and economic problems that hinder the widespread use of these alternative energy sources in road transport are highlighted. The requirements for achieving the competitiveness of cars with traction electric drive and hydrogen fuel cells in comparison with oil-fueled cars are formulated.It has been established that the total gross GHG emissions of the Russian vehicle fleet in 2050, the expected number of which will decrease from 59.8 to 51.7 million units compared to 2021, may amount to 126.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent, which is 28.5 % less than in 2021. Compared to previous projections, the value of total GHG emissions from the vehicle fleet in 2050 will lag behind by about 5 years. At the same time, the vehicle fleet in 2050 will be dominated by automatic telephone exchanges with internal combustion engines on hydrocarbon fuels (liquid, gaseous). Only after 2045, the share of sales of electric vehicles of all types can exceed the share of sales of these types of automatic telephone exchanges with internal combustion engines [1].