Probability of crack-induced failure in BWR recirculation piping

Abstract

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has estimated the probability of double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) in the reactor coolant piping of Mark I boiling water reactor (BWR) plants. Two causes of pipe break are considered: crack growth at welded joints and the seismically-induced failure of component supports. For the former a probabilistic fracture mechanics model is used, for the latter a probabilistic support reliability model. This paper describes a probabilistic model developed to account for effects of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). The IGSCC model, based on experimental and field data compiled from several sources, correlates times to crack initiation and crack growth rates for Types 304 and 316NG stainless steel against material-specific ‘damage parameters’ which consilidate the separate effects of coolant environment (temperature, dissolved oxygen content, level of impurities), stress (including residual stress), and degree of sensitization. Application of this model to actual BWR recirculation piping shows that IGSCC clearly dominates the probability of failure in 304SS piping, mainly due to cracks that initiate within a few years after plant operation has begun. Replacing Type 304 piping with 316NG reduces failure probabilities by several orders of magnitude.