Abstract

As part of its reevaluation of the double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) as a design requirement for reactor coolant piping, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) contracted with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to estimate the probability of occurrence of a DEGB, and to assess the effect that earthquakes have on DEGB probability. This report describes a probabilistic evaluation of reactor coolant loop piping in PWR plants having nuclear steam supply systems designed by Combustion Engineering. Two causes of pipe break were considered: pipe fracture due to the growth of cracks at welded joints (direct DEGB), and pipe rupture indirectly caused by failure of component supports due to an earthquake (indirect DEGB). The probability of direct DEGB was estimated using a probabilistic fracture mechanics model. The probability of indirect DEGB was estimated by estimating support fragility and then convolving fragility with seismic hazard. The results of this study indicate that the probability of a DEGB from either cause is very low for reactor coolant loop piping in these plants, and that NRC should therefore consider eliminating DEGB as a design basis in favor of more realistic criteria.

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