Abstract
Sea level probability forecasts are generated by means of the WAQUA/DCSM98 storm surge model with input from ECMWF's Ensemble Prediction System. For optimum performance with ECMWF input, the model needs to be recalibrated to overcome a systematic underprediction of higher wind speeds. Moreover, an additional calibration of the ensemble with the aid of Rank Histograms is performed. With the calibration, Brier skill scores show that useful probability forecasts can be made for at least 2–5 days ahead. The system runs in experimental real-time mode and results are available on the Internet for forecasters, who used it for the first time during a storm in March 2007.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.