Abstract
It is shown that under reasonable assumptions a Drake-style equation can be obtained for the probability that our universe is the result of a deliberate simulation. Evaluating loose bounds for certain terms in the equation shows that the probability is unlikely to be as high as previously reported in the literature, especially in a scenario where the simulations are recursive. Furthermore, we investigate the possibility of eavesdropping from the outside of such a simulation and introduce a general attack that can circumvent attempts at using quantum cryptography inside the simulation, even if the quantum properties of the simulation are genuine.
Highlights
The question of whether or not we are living inside a computer simulation has inspired a large amount of fiction, but, unsurprisingly, not much serious research
Among the more reasonable and quantitative attempts, let us mention Nick Bostrom’s simulation argument [3]: if societies do not tend to selfdestruct before acquiring the technology necessary to the exploitation of a significant fraction of the computing power inherently permitted by the laws of physics, our probability of living inside a simulation approaches unity
After using these assumptions to estimate the proportion of beings potentially resulting from deliberate simulations, we investigate the possibility of eavesdropping from the outside of such a simulation
Summary
The question of whether or not we are living inside a computer simulation has inspired a large amount of fiction (notably the novel Simulacron-3 [1] and the movie The Matrix [2]), but, unsurprisingly, not much serious research. Among the more reasonable and quantitative attempts, let us mention Nick Bostrom’s simulation argument [3]: if societies do not tend to selfdestruct before acquiring the technology necessary to the exploitation of a significant fraction of the computing power inherently permitted by the laws of physics, our probability of living inside a simulation approaches unity This fairly pessimistic point of view has been widely publicized, for instance making it into The Guardian [4], where, among others, Elon Musk is reported. At the other end of the spectrum, we shall suppose that our physics can be efficiently simulated on quantum computing resources that we can theoretically envision This is not necessarily true, for instance if there is no scale at which physics becomes discrete and the information density of our world is infinite or if gravity is truly beyond quantum mechanics and requires an even more powerful computation paradigm. While it is not possible to perform arbitrary measurements on a genuinely quantum simulation without disturbing it, we show that the combination of the essentially classical nature of our thoughts and the possibility of the simulation being adaptively rewired gives the simulators an insurmountable advantage
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