Inferring the shape of data: a probabilistic framework for analysing experiments in the natural sciences.

Abstract

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in -dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional molecular spectra or emitters in fluorescence microscopy images. Identifying such features involves determining if the overall shape of the data is consistent with an expected shape; however, it is generally unclear how to quantitatively make this determination. In practice, many analysis methods employ subjective, heuristic approaches, which complicates the validation of any ensuing results-especially as the amount and dimensionality of the data increase. Here, we present a probabilistic solution to this problem by using Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that the data have any one of several potential shapes. This probabilistic approach may be used to objectively compare how well different theories describe a dataset, identify changes between datasets and detect features within data using a corollary method called Bayesian Inference-based Template Search; several proof-of-principle examples are provided. Altogether, this mathematical framework serves as an automated 'engine' capable of computationally executing analysis decisions currently made by visual inspection across the sciences.