Abstract
A probabilistic model is described to evaluate the three-dimensional (3-D) stability of earth slopes under long-term conditions. The model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties, as well as the uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. It also accounts for the effects of modeling errors and progressive failure. In the 3-D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters. An actual failure case is analysed in detail taking into consideration all sources of uncertainties. Based on the best estimates of the different soil parameters, the failure width is predicted to be 63 m versus 55 m of observed failure width and the probability of slope failure is computed to be 0.11. The results agree well with those actually observed supporting the predictive ability of the PTDSSA (Probabilistic Three-Dimensional Slope Stability Analysis) model. The numerical evaluation of the model is carried out by the PTDSSA computer program prepared for this purpose.
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