Seismic reliability analysis of earth slopes under short term stability conditions

Abstract

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading. The 3-D slope stability model assumed is that of a simple cylindrical failure surface. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake induced acceleration and uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The probabilistic analysis and design approach is capable of obtaining the 2-D and 3-D static and dynamic safety factors, the probability of slope failure, the earthquake induced acceleration coefficient, the yield acceleration coefficient, the earthquake induced displacement, and the probability of allowable displacement exceedance taking into account the local site effect. The approach is applied to a well known landslide case: Congress Street Landslide in Chicago. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the models by applying those models to the Congress Street landslide considering different levels of seismic hazard. Also, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the sensitivity of computed results to input parameters of undrained shear strength, and corrective factors. A comparison was made between the different models of failure. The parametric study revealed that the hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors.