Probabilistic solution of non-linear random ship roll motion by data-driven method

Abstract

In this paper, a data-driven method is employed to investigate the probability density function (PDF) of nonlinear stochastic ship roll motion. The mathematical model of ship roll motion comprises a linear term with cubic damping and a nonlinear restoring moment represented as an odd-degree polynomial up to the fifth order. The data-driven method integrates maximum entropy, the pseudo-inverse algorithm, and a backpropagation (BP) neural network to obtain the PDF. The process begins with simulating data for the nonlinear stochastic system, followed by dimensional analysis to identify dimensionless parameter clusters. Optimization algorithms are then employed to solve for the coefficients, leading to the development of a BP neural network model trained to predict the PDF across various system characteristics and excitation intensities. The method's effectiveness is validated with Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrating high accuracy and reduced sensitivity to parameter variations.