Probabilistic shear wave velocity model based on downhole test database for Apennine flysch formations

Abstract

Defining a reference shear wave velocity profile (Vs) is crucial for seismic-hazard assessment and seismic response analysis. However, selecting a reference velocity profile is not straightforward, mainly because of the high variability of shear wave velocity in complex formations. This study considered 26 shear wave profiles from downhole tests carried out in the Laga Basin (Gran Sasso, Central Apennines), where the soil can be categorised as complex owing to the chaotic succession of turbidite and Quaternary continental deposits. Downhole tests and stratigraphy were used to (i) develop a probabilistic model for predicting the shear wave profiles calibrated on the collected test data and (ii) propose an outlier detection method for estimating the first fundamental frequency of the deposit from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) analyses. Specifically, the stochastic shear wave model provides the uncertainty of the first fundamental frequency estimated from downhole tests based on a simplified mechanics-based formulation. The defined bounds, were forward uncertainty propagation following a Monte Carlo approach, have been used to define the criteria for outlier detection in HVSR frequency assessments, given an approximate estimate of the equivalent depth.