Abstract
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response, assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical, probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations. In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.
Highlights
Manizales is a city of about 400,000 inhabitants located in the Colombian Andes
After identifying the structural characteristics of each element included in both exposure databases, a set of vulnerability functions was developed in terms of different seismic hazard intensity measures, to be assigned later to each element
It is worth noting that, pipelines concentrate the vast majority of the exposed value, their annual loss (AAL) is low when compared, in relative terms, to any other component
Summary
Manizales is a city of about 400,000 inhabitants located in the Colombian Andes. to other cities in the region, Manizales has a building portfolio that is mainly comprised of low and middle-rise masonry and reinforced concrete residential, commercial, and administrative units. As a consequence of being located in a region prone to hazards with different origins (for example, landslides, floods, and volcanic ash fall are common in the city, and the Colombian Andes are prone to earthquakes), a comprehensive set of disaster risk management and reduction activities have been continuously developed during the past 10 years. These actions have had remarkable achievements in terms of corrective and prospective interventions, which range from the structural retrofitting of hospitals to the design and implementation of a voluntary and collective risk transfer scheme using innovative earthquake insurance approaches (Marulanda 2013; Marulanda et al 2014, 2016).
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