Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Panama

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in term of Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity are derived by applying the ‘Cornell-McGuire’ method to four earthquake source zones in Panama and adjacent areas. The maps contain estimates of the maximum MM intensity for return periods of 5, 25 and 100 yr. The earthquake phenomenon is based on the point source model. The probabilistic iso-intensity map for a return period of 50 yr indicates that the Panama Suture Zone (PSZ) could experience a maximum (MM) intensity IX, and the Panama Fracture Zone (PFZ) an MM intensity VIII, for the rest of the area this varies from IV up to VIII. The present study intends to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches, to stimulate discussions and suggestions on the data base, assumptions and inputs, and path for the risk based assessment of the seismic hazard in the site selection and in the design of common buildings and engineering.