A probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Turkey

Abstract

Seismic hazard maps for Turkey are developed by utilizing the current probabilistic procedures. The maps contain probabilistic estimates of the maximum MSK intensity and the maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration for the return periods of 225, 475 and 10,000 years. A modified and updated catalogue for the large and damaging earthquakes affecting Turkey has been prepared to provide a base for the spatial correlation of the seismic activity with the geo-tectonic elements. Brief descriptions of the seismic sources adopted for Turkey for the purpose of seismic source regionalization are given. Recurrence relationship regression constants, maximum magnitudes and intensity attenuation relationships are provided for each seismic source zone. The earthquake phenomenon is based on both the point source model and the fault rupture model depending on the source model. The results are discussed in detail. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to stimulate discussion and suggestions on the data base, assumptions and the inputs, and to pave the path for the risk based assessment of the seismic hazard in the site selection and the design of nuclear power plants and in the design of common buildings and engineering facilities.