Abstract
Recent advances in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and stochastic ground motion modelling are presented. First, an extended seismic hazard analysis is presented. It is based on the concept of hazard-consistent seismic parameters, and allows one to deal with multivariate decision problems related to seismic hazard. Engineering applications are developed on the generation of risk consistent earthquake motions and probability-based determination of specific scenario earthquakes. The second part deals with the evaluation of ground motion uncertainties and the development of their stochastic models. The topics include reduction of uncertainties with an increase in site information, nonlinear soil amplification, and application to closed-form solution for stochastic response spectra. The last part consists of a theoretical basis for the stochastic interpolation of ground motions that will be useful as a tool for postearthquake emergency operations. Developments of the theory of conditional random field constitute the main part of the paper.
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