Abstract
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a powerful, rational and attractive tool for decision-making. It is capable of absorbing and integrating a wide range of information and judgement and their associated uncertainties into a flexible framework that permits the application of societal goals and priorities. Unfortunately, its highly integrative nature can obscure those elements which drive the results, its highly quantitative nature can lead to false impressions of accuracy, and its open embrace of uncertainty can make decision-making difficult. Addressing these problems can only help to increase its use and make it more palatable to those who need to assess seismic hazard and utilize the results.
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