Abstract
There are various uncertainties in the design, construction, and operation of dams. These uncertainties have an important impact on the seismic response and seismic safety evaluation of concrete dams. In this research, a typical nonoverflow monolith of a concrete gravity dam is selected as a case study for the sliding stability analysis. Based on the analysis and demonstration of parameter sensitivity of friction coefficients and cohesion and their influence on the deep antisliding stability of the dam-foundation system, the probabilistic seismic analysis of a gravity dam-foundation system is carried out through Monte Carlo analysis with a large sample number. Damage levels are defined based on the sliding instability failure mode along with the corresponding threshold values of the damage index. Thus, seismic fragility analysis is investigated, and seismic fragility curves are obtained for the vulnerability assessment under earthquake hazards. The overall seismic stability of the gravity dam is evaluated, which provides the basis for the seismic safety evaluation in the probabilistic framework.
Highlights
Gravity dams as critical infrastructure components play an inestimable role in the economic and social development of the country for flood prevention, hydropower generation, water transportation, irrigation, and water supply
As important infrastructures, have various uncertainties. ese uncertainties show a great impact on the seismic response of the concrete gravity dams [6]. us, probabilistic and stochastic analyses are preferred for an adequate understanding of the expected range of structural response
An effective and powerful probabilistic method has been proposed for comprehensively evaluating seismic response including both sources of uncertainty combining the Monte Carlo simulation with incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) [9]. is method has been widely used for estimating the variability of seismic response of Advances in Civil Engineering concrete buildings and bridges with reliable and significant achievements [10,11,12,13]
Summary
Gravity dams as critical infrastructure components play an inestimable role in the economic and social development of the country for flood prevention, hydropower generation, water transportation, irrigation, and water supply. Tekie and Ellingwood [7] used a probabilistic framework to model sources of uncertainty for developing fragilities of concrete gravity dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards with selected earthquake records. An effective and powerful probabilistic method has been proposed for comprehensively evaluating seismic response including both sources of uncertainty combining the Monte Carlo simulation with incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) [9]. Erefore, this paper focuses on the effects of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty and seismic fragility analysis of concrete gravity dams based on the sliding instability failure mode on account of the complexity of engineering geological conditions and lack of clear understanding of geological defects in the underlying dam foundation. En, the probabilistic analysis is carried out to propagate the sliding parameter uncertainties to the IDA-evaluated seismic performance with efficient Monte Carlo simulation and moment estimation techniques. Following the results of probabilistic analysis, damage levels are defined, and seismic fragility curves are obtained for the failure probability estimation of the sliding stability under earthquake hazards
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