Probabilistic risk assessment of nitrates for Austrian adults and estimation of the magnitude of their conversion into nitrites

Abstract

Nitrates occur in food naturally, as contaminants or additives. The health implications attributed to ingested nitrates result primarily from their conversion into nitrites and subsequent methemoglobinemia, carcinogenicity induced by N-nitroso-compounds and cardiovascular, endocrine, metabolic, reproductive and developmental effects. The present study comprises a probabilistic tiered risk assessment of nitrates for Austrian adults through the diet with the application of the Monte Carlo simulation method in alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Risk estimates are of concern regarding the upper exposures, which exceed the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) in almost all scenarios and population groups. Exposure is elevated when all dietary sources are considered and the ADI is exceeded by already the mean intake for vegetarians. Leafy vegetables are major contributors to the intake. Contribution of cured meat is very low. Estimates of the conversion of nitrates into nitrites were used to assess the combined exposure to both species. When the average intake of nitrates and nitrites is considered, the mean exposure to nitrites is lower or close to the ADI for individuals with average conversion capacity. However, upper tail combined intake can lead to a multifold exceedance of the ADI of nitrites for individuals with both high and average conversion capacity.