Probabilistic Reliability‐Based Expansion Planning with Wind Turbine Generators

Abstract

This chapter proposes a new methodology for grid‐constrained probabilistic reliability evaluation of power system expansion including wind turbine generator (WTG). The simulation methodology requires a nodal probabilistic model in order to implement the reliability evaluation of the composite power system including WTGs. The operating model of a WTG is a multistate model which is described by a capacity outage probability density function. Composite power system reliability evaluation methodologies based on both enumeration and Monte Carlo methods have been developed. A composite power system reliability evaluation methodology based on the composite power system effective load model has also been developed. The chapter describes the effectiveness of the proposed method through a case study with Jeju Island's power system in Korea. From effective use of the proposed method in the case study, however, actual grid expansion planning problem involving WTGs can be evaluated for more scenarios.