Abstract
Exceedance probability of a potential hydropower production was evaluated for 12 river basins located in Finland. The exceedance probability curves of the potential hydropower production were assessed from the probabilistic projections of annual runoff rate. The exceedance probability curves of the ARR are constructed within the Pearson type 3 distributions from simulated parameters, i.e. mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness. In our case study, these parameters were simulated from the mean values of annual precipitation rate calculated from outputs of two climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathway's climate scenarios. The future changes in the potential hydropower production for the selected river basins were evaluated on the assumption that a potential hydropower production is linearly related to ARR in all range of exceedance probabilities.
Highlights
Water has a long history of being one of a key natural resource in energy production
Probabilistic hydrological projections give the values of river runoff together with their exceedance probability; they allow a better understanding of the future risks of hydropower generation
The probabilistic hydrological model simulates the estimates of three non-central statistical moments to model exceedance probability curves of annual runoff within the Pearson type 3 distributions
Summary
Water has a long history of being one of a key natural resource in energy production. National hydro-meteorological services need to provide a probabilistic form for surface runoff forecasts to estimate hydropower production on seasonal and long-term scales [2, 4, 5]. Probability density function is a natural form to describe a random variable. An exceedance probability curve is better known by water engineers [6, 7, 8]; it is the inverse of the probability density cumulative. Probabilistic hydrological projections give the values of river runoff together with their exceedance probability; they allow a better understanding of the future risks of hydropower generation
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
