Abstract
The vitality, timing, and magnitude of hydropower production is driven by streamflow, which is determined by climate variables, in particular precipitation and temperature. Accordingly, changes in climate characteristics can cause alterations in hydropower production potential. This delineates a critical energy security concern, especially in places such as Canada, where recent changes in climate are substantial and hydropower production is important for both domestic use and exportation. Current Canadian assessments, however, are limited as they mainly focus on a small number of power plants across the country. In addition, they implement scenario-led top-down impact assessments that are subject to large uncertainties in climate, hydrological, and energy models. To avoid these limitations, we propose a bottom-up impact assessment based on the historical information on climatic trends and causal links between climate variables and hydropower production across political jurisdictions. Using this framework, we estimate expected monthly gain/loss in regional hydropower production potential under the continuation of historical climate trends. Our findings show that Canada’s production potential is expected to increase, although the net gain/loss is subject to significant variations across different regions. Our results suggest increasing potential in Yukon, Ontario, and Quebec but decreasing production in the North Western Territories and Nunavut, British Columbia, and Alberta.
Highlights
Increasing global energy demand, limiting fossil fuel resources as well as looming effects of climate change have created the urgency for looking at alternative energy resources, in particular renewable energy supplies [1]
We look at how trends in anomalies of climate variables across climate stations can be maintained by corresponding upscaled climate variables
The results confirm that the trends of upscaled climate anomalies are within the empirical range in all cases, expect for Nunavut (NU) and Northwest Territories (NT) for mean temperature
Summary
Increasing global energy demand, limiting fossil fuel resources as well as looming effects of climate change have created the urgency for looking at alternative energy resources, in particular renewable energy supplies [1]. We recognize that current assessments (1) may not be relevant at larger scales, across political jurisdictions where management decisions are made; and (2) are subject to large uncertainties due to limitations in current modeling technology that support impact assessment. To avoid these gaps, we focus on understanding empirical trends in regional climate variables, as well as dependency and causal links between regional climate variables and hydropower production.
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