Abstract
Probabilistic production simulation is an important tool used in conventional power systems to calculate generated energy and evaluate reliability. With the continuous expansion of the renewable energy plants, new characteristics such as intermittency and volatility of power are widely discussed, and it is necessary to study the application of probabilistic production simulation for renewable energy power generation. This study proposes a probabilistic production simulation method based on sequence operation theory (SOT) to simulate the operation of a wind/photovoltaic/energy storage power system. Both the uncertainty of renewable resources and the outage of wind turbines are considered in this study. Considering the complementary property of the renewable energy, pattern clustering is used to analyse the meteorological conditions and to assist in the probabilistic production simulation. Moreover, the output model of the energy storage device is developed using the Monte Carlo method and controlled using a smoothing strategy of the energy storage device. Ultimately, the simulation example shows the feasibility and the higher efficiency of the algorithm compared with Monte Carlo method and a production simulation method based on equivalent energy function.
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