Probabilistic prediction of post-earthquake rubble range for RC frame structures

Abstract

In the post-earthquake environment, the rubble generated by the collapse of buildings will seriously affect the functionality of the transportation system, like post-disaster medical rescue, personnel evacuation, and material transport. A reasonable prediction of the distribution range of rubble from building structure collapses is vital for assessing city seismic resilience. This paper focuses on this topic from a probabilistic perspective. Twenty-two ground vibrations are the first input for reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures at different floors to simulate their collapse behavior in earthquakes. The model of rubble distribution range is then proposed to comprehensively consider the uncertainties of the ground motions and structures. The corresponding risk model is finally developed. Building heights, uncertainty associated with ground motions, the likelihood of structural collapse, and the likelihood of the interval distribution of debris are all taken into consideration by the model. The statistical analysis indicates that the proposed model can provide a reasonable prediction of the simulate results. The results can be used as a reference for city government decision-makers to develop emergency plans and as a basis for assessing the road network's capacity after an earthquake.