Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow for Day-Ahead Dispatching of Power Systems with High-Proportion Renewable Power Sources

Abstract

With the increasing proportion of uncertain power sources in the power grid; such as wind and solar power sources; the probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is more suitable for the steady state analysis (SSA) of power systems with high proportions of renewable power sources (PSHPRPSs). Moreover; PSHPRPSs have large uncertain power generation prediction error in day-ahead dispatching; which is accommodated by real-time dispatching and automatic generation control (AGC). In summary; this paper proposes a once-iterative probabilistic optimal power flow (OIPOPF) method for the SSA of day-ahead dispatching in PSHPRPSs. To verify the feasibility of the OIPOPF model and its solution algorithm; the OIPOPF was applied to a modified Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) 39-bus test system and modified IEEE 300-bus test system. Based on a comparison between the simulation results of the OIPOPF and AC power flow models; the OIPOPF model was found to ensure the accuracy of the power flow results and simplify the power flow model. The OIPOPF was solved using the point estimate method based on Gram–Charlier expansion; and the numerical characteristics of the line power were obtained. Compared with the simulation results of the Monte Carlo method; the point estimation method based on Gram–Charlier expansion can accurately solve the proposed OIPOPF model