Abstract
With the increasing proportion of uncertain power sources in the power grid; such as wind and solar power sources; the probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is more suitable for the steady state analysis (SSA) of power systems with high proportions of renewable power sources (PSHPRPSs). Moreover; PSHPRPSs have large uncertain power generation prediction error in day-ahead dispatching; which is accommodated by real-time dispatching and automatic generation control (AGC). In summary; this paper proposes a once-iterative probabilistic optimal power flow (OIPOPF) method for the SSA of day-ahead dispatching in PSHPRPSs. To verify the feasibility of the OIPOPF model and its solution algorithm; the OIPOPF was applied to a modified Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) 39-bus test system and modified IEEE 300-bus test system. Based on a comparison between the simulation results of the OIPOPF and AC power flow models; the OIPOPF model was found to ensure the accuracy of the power flow results and simplify the power flow model. The OIPOPF was solved using the point estimate method based on Gram–Charlier expansion; and the numerical characteristics of the line power were obtained. Compared with the simulation results of the Monte Carlo method; the point estimation method based on Gram–Charlier expansion can accurately solve the proposed OIPOPF model
Highlights
The steady state analysis (SSA) of power systems is the most fundamental method for the investigation of power system planning and operations
In the modified Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) 39-bus test system and the modified IEEE 300-bus test system, point estimation methods based on Gram–Charlier expansion and Monte Carlo simulation method were employed for the calculation of the once-iterative probabilistic optimal power flow (OIPOPF) model proposed in this paper
The simulation results of the two abovementioned methods were compared to verify that the point estimation method based on Gram–Charlier expansion can be used to solve the proposed OIPOPF model
Summary
The steady state analysis (SSA) of power systems is the most fundamental method for the investigation of power system planning and operations. A calculation method for the steady state operation of power systems is based on power flow. With an increase in proportion of uncertain power sources such as wind and solar power generation in the power grid, there is a corresponding increase in the number of indeterminate variables in the power grid. Due to the indeterminate variables, in accordance with the law of probability and statistics, the probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) model is suitable for the SSA of power systems with high proportions of renewable power sources (PSHPRPSs) [3,4,5,6,7]
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