Probabilistic model for safe evacuation under the effect of uncertain factors in fire

Abstract

As people’s evacuation behavior in a building fire is uncertain, there are therefore many uncertain factors affect the people’s evacuation process. In this study, Latin Hypercube Sampling method has been used to mathematically describe the determinacy and randomness in people’s evacuation process. Further, a probabilistic model for people’s safe evacuation has been developed. That is, Latin Hypercube Sampling method has been used to carry out a computer simulation sampling for the uncertain factors in the evacuation process, in which a probability density function has been used to describe the randomness of the uncertain factors in the evacuation process. In this way, the expected probability distribution of people’s egress time has been determined. By comparing the mathematical expression of people’s available safe egress time (ASET) with that of the people’s required safe egress time (RSET), the probability distributions of evacuation safety with its margin have been predicted under the effect of uncertain factors in evacuation process. The probability model developed in this study is more reasonable than the traditional deterministic evaluation method for people’s safe evacuation, and it is more suitable for the evaluation of risk in a building fire where people with relatively large mobility and irregular distribution.