Probabilistic model for fatigue damage estimation of wind turbines with hidden markov model and neural network

Abstract

The growing demand for sustainable and affordable energy sources has led to rapid development in wind energy systems. Ensuring the long-term performance and reliability of wind turbines requires accurate estimation of fatigue damage under diverse environmental conditions. By incorporating probabilistic methods, this paper presents a comprehensive framework for long-term fatigue damage evaluation for wind turbines with high accuracy and efficiency. The proposed framework adopts the multivariate kernel density estimation to construct the high-dimensional joint probability distribution of environmental variables. A hidden Markov model serves as the driver to build the connection between historical records and future events. The short-term fatigue damage is estimated by the deep neural network based on future environmental parameters. The long-term fatigue damage is then achieved by accumulating the short-term fatigue damage evaluations with sufficient event instances. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed framework, a case study is conducted with a wind turbine in the North Sea region. The fatigue damage analysis results highlight the necessity of regular inspections and maintenance for wind turbines to ensure their long-term service life and optimal performance. The framework is capable of considering a wide range of environmental factors and accounting for the inherent uncertainties and stochastic nature, providing a robust and comprehensive approach for estimating fatigue damage of wind turbines as well as other structures under long-term environmental conditions.