PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING SYSTEM OF STORM SURGE USING A STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL

Abstract

This paper presents a newly developed real time probabilistic forecasting system of storm surge at an arbitrary target location when a typhoon is formed and approaches to the location. Such probabilistic information may be essential for business or public entities along the coast who need to make appropriate decision to what extent they should break their daily operations and prepare for the upcoming coastal hazard. Developed system, based on Monte Carlo simulation, consists of two parts: (i) generation of a number of virtual typhoons; and (ii) storm surge prediction for each typhoon.