Probabilistic forecasting of reference evapotranspiration with a limited area ensemble prediction system

Abstract

The increasing availability of operational limited area ensemble prediction systems (LEPS) opens up new opportunities for the application of weather forecasts in agriculture and water resource management. This study aims to evaluate the performances of probabilistic daily reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts with lead times up to 5days and a spatial resolution of 7km, computed by using COSMO-LEPS outputs (provided by the European Consortium for small–scale modelling, COSMO), in a region of southern Italy known for its complex topography in proximity to the Mediterranean coastline. ET0 was estimated by means of three different estimation methods, i.e. the Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Priestley-Taylor (PT) and FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) equations, in order to assess the size of the weather forecast errors with models of different accuracies. Forecasts were verified with ground-based data from 18 automatic weather stations, and for two irrigation seasons. Performances were assessed with both deterministic indices, including BIAS, RMSE, correlation coefficients and coefficients of variation of the 16-member ensemble forecasts, and probabilistic metrics, such as the Brier skill score, reliability diagrams and relative operating characteristic. ET0 forecasts with PM equation were robust and reliable, with slight sensitivity to the forecast lead time. High performances were also achieved with HS and PT equations, except for locations close to the coastline, where large systematic errors affect the numerical weather forecasts.