Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis for the north Tabriz fault

Abstract

Abstract. The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the newest methods of estimating the amount of probabilistic displacement in fault surface rupture areas. Considering the strike-slip mechanism of the north Tabriz fault, Iran, using the earthquake method and historical earthquakes in 1721 and 1780, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the probabilistic displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. The north Tabriz fault's 50–60 km long section was selected as the source of possible surface rupture from its historical data. Two scenarios were considered according to probabilistic displacements, return periods, and magnitudes according to paleoseismic studies of the north Tabriz fault. For both scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the exceedance rate of 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the probabilistic principle displacements (on the fault) of the north Tabriz fault have been estimated.