Probabilistic Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Based on Multi-Source Satellite Remote Sensing Images

Abstract

Estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is beneficial for preventing and reducing the impact of natural disasters. Most existing methods for estimating TC intensity utilize single-satellite or single-band remote sensing images, but they lack the ability to quantify the uncertainty of the estimation results. However, TC, as a typical chaotic system, often requires confidence intervals for intensity estimates in real-world emergency decision-making scenarios. Additionally, the use of multi-source image inputs contributes to the uncertainty of the model. Consequently, this study introduces a neural network (MTCIE) that utilizes multi-source satellite images to provide probabilistic estimates of TC intensity. The model utilizes infrared and microwave images from multiple satellites as inputs. It uses a dual-branch self-attention encoder to extract TC image features and provides uncertainty estimates for TC intensity. Furthermore, a dataset for estimating the intensity of multi-source TC remote sensing images (MTCID) is constructed through the registration of latitude, longitude, and time, along with data augmentation. The proposed method achieves a MAE of 7.42 kt in deterministic estimation, comparable to mainstream networks like TCIENet. In uncertain estimation, it outperforms methods like MC Dropout in the PICP metric, providing reliable probability estimates. This supports TC disaster emergency decision making, enhancing risk mitigation in real-world applications.