Probabilistic energy flow calculation for regional integrated energy system considering cross-system failures

Abstract

With the increasing coupling among multiple energy systems, component failure of one system may spread to other systems, which results in cross-system failures that will remarkably affect the operation state of RIES. In this regard, this paper proposes a probabilistic energy flow calculation approach for regional integrated energy system (RIES), taking into account those cross-system failures (CSF), as well as fluctuations of renewable generation and multi-energy loads. An iterative screening method based on failure identification matrix is developed to find failed components cross different systems caused by CSF. With this method, all CSFs can be divided into three categories to simplify the interaction analysis among systems. Finally, a Monte Carlo based probabilistic energy flow calculation framework is proposed considering those three types of CSF. Numerical studies are performed on a RIES test system with 101 nodes and a practical RIES system with 119 nodes, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results also show that the approach can provide more comprehensive insight of the interaction among different energy systems in various failure situations.