Probabilistic and statistical justification of the forecast of oil and gas potential in the area with established industrial oil capacity

Abstract

The article provides an example of an integrated approach to geological exploration in an area with an established industrial oil capacity. This approach is based on the analysis of the geological structure of the area under consideration and the stochastic assessment of the resources of the prospects using the Monte-Carlo simulation. Within the area under consideration, two regions were allocated for separate forecasting of the oil and gas potential of the prospects: south-western and north-eastern. Potentially oil and gas-bearing structures have been established in each region: in the south-western region, all structures are classified as unpromising, in the north-eastern region – as exploration targets. For each structure in the north-eastern region, possible oil-bearing areas were calculated, analog fields were selected for the probabilistic assessment of the prepared resources using the Monte-Carlo simulation. Based on the results of the evaluation, the most exploration target was selected.