Probabilistic Analysis of Solar Power Supply Using D-Vine Copulas Based on Meteorological Variables

Abstract

Solar power generation at solar plants is a strongly fluctuating non-deterministic variable depending on many influencing factors. In general, it is not clear which and how certain variables influence solar power supply at feed-in points in a distribution network. Therefore, analyzing the dependence structure of measured solar power supply and other variables is very informative and can be helpful in designing probabilistic prediction models. In this paper multivariate D-vine copulas are fitted to investigate the relationship between solar power supply and certain meteorological variables in the current time period of one hour length as well as solar power supply in previous time periods. The meteorological variables considered in this analysis are global horizontal irradiation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, precipitation and pressure. By applying parametric D-vine copulas useful insight is gained into the dependence structure of solar power supply and the considered meteorological variables. The main goal lies in determining suitable explanatory variables for the design of probabilistic prediction models for solar power supply at single feed-in points and analyzing their impact on the validation of conditional level-crossing probabilities.