Probabilistic Analysis of Solar Cell Performance Using Gaussian Processes

Abstract

This article investigates the application of machine learning-based probabilistic prediction methodologies to estimate the performance of silicon-based solar cells. The concept of confidence-bound regions is introduced and the advantages of this concept are discussed in detail. The results show that the optical and electrical performance of a photovoltaic device can be accurately estimated using Gaussian processes with accurate knowledge of the uncertainty in the prediction values. It is also shown that cell design parameters can be estimated for a desired performance metric and trained machine learning models can be deployed as a standalone application.