Probabilistic analysis of ground settlement induced by tunnel excavation in multilayered soil considering spatial variability

Abstract

Accurately evaluating and predicting the ground settlement during tunnel excavation are crucial for ensuring the stability of tunnel structures. However, the traditional methods always use representative (or average) values for deterministic analysis and rarely consider the spatial variability of soil properties. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of ground settlement under uncertain soil properties was performed based on random fields combined with the finite-difference method. The random fields of Young’s modulus and friction angle of multilayered soils were generated based on the Cholesky decomposition in a manner consistent with a specified numerical mesh. The effects of spatial variability and cross-correlation in random fields on the ground settlement were investigated in detail. The results demonstrate that spatially variable soils significantly influence the probability of failure, magnitude, and longitudinal profile of ground settlement in the vertical direction. It can be found that the allowable ground settlement of the limit state function also dominated the degree of the vertical scale of fluctuation on stability. Neglecting the cross-correlation between the two random fields results in an overestimation of the probability of failure compared with an independent analysis. Subsequently, the failure mechanisms of ground settlement in spatially random soils were discussed.