Proactive travel time predictions under interrupted flow condition

Abstract

This research is focused on the development of a model for estimating arterial travel time by utilizing an automatic vehicle location (AVL) system-equipped bus as a probe vehicle. As an initial achievement, a prototype arterial travel time estimation model, applied to the bus arrival time estimation, was developed. The methodology adopted in this phase of the travel time estimation model was the online parameter adaptation algorithm. Three objectives were identified for this phase of the research. These were: (1) studying dynamics of bus behavior at a single bus stop; (2) extending the dynamics of bus behavior study to multiple bus stops; and (3) developing a prototype bus arrival time prediction model. The prototype travel time estimation was tested and evaluated through the simulation.