Abstract
BackgroundTo support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands.Methodology/Principal FindingsA risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of the epidemiology and impact of these pathogens on society. Criteria were weighed, based on the preferences of a panel of judges with a background in infectious disease control.Conclusions/SignificancePathogens with the highest risk for the Netherlands included pathogens in the livestock reservoir with a high actual human disease burden (e.g. Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii) or a low current but higher historic burden (e.g. Mycobacterium bovis), rare zoonotic pathogens in domestic animals with severe disease manifestations in humans (e.g. BSE prion, Capnocytophaga canimorsus) as well as arthropod-borne and wildlife associated pathogens which may pose a severe risk in future (e.g. Japanese encephalitis virus and West-Nile virus). These agents are key targets for development of early warning and surveillance.
Highlights
Human health is threatened by a wide variety of pathogens transmitted from animals to humans
In the Netherlands, a systematic approach for early warning and surveillance of emerging zoonoses and a blueprint for an efficient network of collaborators from the medical and veterinary professions to prevent and control emerging zoonoses are being developed by a consortium of national institutes for human and animal health
The HAIRS Group in the UK [1] has developed qualitative decision trees to assess the zoonotic potential of emerging diseases [2] and to classify the risk to public health, based on probability and impact of infection [3]
Summary
Human health is threatened by a wide variety of pathogens transmitted from animals to humans. In the Netherlands, a systematic approach for early warning and surveillance of emerging zoonoses and a blueprint for an efficient network of collaborators from the medical and veterinary professions to prevent and control emerging zoonoses are being developed by a consortium of national institutes for human and animal health (the EmZoo consortium). To support this task, a prioritized list of emerging zoonotic pathogens of relevance for the Netherlands was needed. A priority setting procedure entails asking a limited number of experts to reach consensus An example of this approach in the domain of emerging zoonoses has been published in France [4]. To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands
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